Weave a little help

Apparently after another shelling Walt had seen enough. The problem is Weaver has been shelled just as much this season for the Angels, but he certainly is more talented the 3-4-5 trio of death we’ve been watching lately. I do admit I kinda sorta wish we hadn’t had to part with Terry Evans, but whether he’s a breakout or just a fluke is yet to be seen. Evans has hit 22 HR and has stolen 26 bases, hitting over .300 between Palm Beach and Springfield, and has slugged well over .550. Drafted in 01, he’s a pretty old guy to just arrive to AA. Prior to this season, Evans has only hit .239/.303/.394 and 40 HR in 4 MiLB seasons, all in the lower rungs of the system. Eh. Oh, well. I guess I can’t nor should I complain.

Weaver’s projections:

  • Ron Shandler: 203 IP, 3.99 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 2.8 K/BB 1.1 HR/9
  • PECOTA: 195 IP, 4.07 ERA, 135 K, 49 BB, 25 HR
  • Bill James Handbook: 239 IP, 4.10 ERA 159 K’s, 63 BB, 27 HR
  • Actual to date: 88 IP, 6.29 ERA, 62 K, 21 BB, 18 (!!!) HR

Weaver, unlike his new teammates can actually get a strikeout:

  • Marquis 4.1 K/9
  • Ponson 4.1
  • Suppan 4.5
  • Mulder 4.7
  • Weaver 6.3

He also walks fewer batters:

  • Ponson 3.5 per/9
  • Suppan 3.5
  • Marquis 3.2
  • Mulder 2.8
  • Weaver 2.1

Where he’s suffered is in giving up the longball

  • Weaver 1.81 per/9
  • Mulder 1.78
  • Marquis 1.54
  • Suppan 1.31

Just guessing here, the fact that Weaver can still get strikeouts shows me his velocity isn’t the problem. Maybe the homeruns are just dumb luck. 17% of his flyballs are going over the fences, when the average is 11-12% If the gopher-itis can be curbed, this is a great deal. If it can’t, well, how much worse can he be the the other junk we’ve endured?

It should also be noted that Weaver has a history for being a slow starter. Last season for the Dodgers, Weaver had a 5.97 ERA and only averaged 6 innings per start. After 5/29 he settled down and posted a 3.60 ERA and averaged around 7 innings per start.

Edit: Beyond the Boxscore has more scoop on Weaver, and as it turns out the Angels may have just lost patience with him, as he was just starting to rebound and had a bad start at Colorado. I really like this deal. (Hat tip to Murrel who posted this at VEB).

2 Comments

Let me be the first to say you were right weeks ago when you brought up the elder Weaver brother potentially becoming a Cardinals. I thought it was a crazy idea then but at this point I guess crazy ideas are what we have to resort to! I hope he finds a little of his old dominant self in the St. Louis summer.

I’m tellin’ ya, Walt reads this blog. :-D Kinney is up. Thompson is down. Duncan is up. Timo is down. And now Weaver is in. Luna started at 2nd base last night. All that needs to happen now is for Wainwright to make his way into the rotation and my little plan is pretty much complete, though we could use a good arm to replace Adam in the pen, especially with Looper looking like a bust right now.

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