Hot of the presses from the infamous message board poster Hawg Wild. Here it is:
Colby Rasmus, Reyes, and two others for Willis?
According to Colby Rasmus' dad, its being discussed.
Quote:
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Colby just called me and said his agent told him of conversations the cardinals were having with the possibility of Colby and a three or four other Cardinal players going to Florida in return for Dontrelle Willis. Reyes and Colby were the only 2 players Colby was told about, he did not hear who the other 2/3 players were. His words to me, "Man that *****".
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Then Hawg sites a poster at the Birdhouse who is supposively Colby's dad. First of all, how would his dad know unless it's already a done deal? Seems odd. But I looked "Pops" previous posts, he frequents Scout.com's Auburn site. His family does hale from Alabama and I Colby originally signed with AU before deciding to turn pro. So it does add up.
Anywho...here's the kicker...Bernie Miklasz isn't refuting it on his board, rather it seems he's confirming it, saying he's been trying to hint at it and is throwing Chris Duncan's name into the mix as the other player.
I'm iffy. Very iffy. It almost looks like the Mulder trade part 2. Willis and Reyes both forecast to be somewhat different pitchers, but in the end they should get around the same results as far as their ERA's are concerned. If you are a Baseball Prospectus subscriber, you can go look at their 5 year forecasts. Very similiar. Both are only 24. But the big difference here is that Dontrelle has nearly 5 seasons in the bigs under his belt and Reyes has yet to throw more then 150 innings in a season professionally due to injury. The very fact that the Cardinals were able to steal Reyes in the draft was based on injury history.
But, many experts have been forecasting the same for Dontrelle. And you have to wonder if it's true, given that Dontrelle's K's are down about a 1 strikeout per 9. Baseball Prospectus compares him to Mark Buehrle, Steve Avery and Jim Abbott. 2 of those three lefties flamed out in a hurry.
In the end, I'm not sure you do this trade. I'm not certain it's worth giving up your best minor league bat plus a pitcher that forecasts to do put up the same numbers. Furthermore, Reyes has less wear and tear on his arm.
I know the D-Train is a proven talent, and he's flashed some Cy Young stuff. Carp and Willis would look pretty stout at the top of the rotation, but I just am not sold that it's worth the gamble. Maybe it could pay off, and Willis would look great in Cardinal red. He's a joy to watch and and you got to love how he plays the game. His best days should still be ahead of him if he can avoid that injury bug. And you know Tony won't abuse him like Dontrelle's other managers have. Tony LaRussa really doesn't seem all that sold on Reyes, so maybe Willis could be a better fit with the team even it if it's going to cost more dough.
I dunno. It's iffy. Maybe I just am overrating Reyes.
I wasn't sure whether to believe it at first, but Miklasz' endorsement of it kind of pushed me towards believing this to be a real possibility. As it's currently constructed though, I'm a lot less torn than you about it. I think the Cards would be overpaying tremendously. I'd love to see Willis wearing the Birds on the Bat, but not at that cost. If it was Reyes OR Rasmus plus the other guys (or maybe even just Reyes and Rasmus, with no one else of major significance thrown in), then I'd be much happier to see the deal go down.
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I'm at the point where it's "somebody wake me when it happens". Because of the derth of talent in the farm system and the unwillingness of the owners to pony up any extra cash, 95% of the players being bantied about are either out of the team's reach financially or just more of what is already there. So...somebody wake me when it happens.
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This is a tough choice. I'm really torn. Reyes' inexperience and injury proneness worry me and no one knows for 100% that Rasmus is the real deal. Yet what if Willis does flame out? then what. i dont' want another teams damaged goods AGAIN.
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I just don't know. Willis doesn't excite me this much. I'd rather deal those three for Cabrera, at least we'd know what we were getting. (Well, I'd really like a Liriano-type, but that's not happening either.)
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I understand your reluctance to part with a young major-league-ready pitching prospect. However, as you mention, the Cardinals would be getting a similar-aged one in return, one who has had three years of proven major-league experience. Also, BPro actually reveals Willis to be the superior performer over the next four years: Willis's projected average annual VORP is around 30, whereas Reyes's is about 18. Looks like a winner on paper.
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