(WPA graph from www.fangraphs.com )

The 5 Stages of a bad season.

1. Denial. "This can't be happening" "We still have Albert, Carp and Rolen so we have a chance" "Somehow, the pitching will get it together" "Mulder will be back" "Things could get better if this team every play's as it's capable"
2. Anger. "Why me?" "Stupid, cheap owners hand-cuffing Jocketty this winter" "Jock has lost his magic" "Izzy is garbage" "Boo Juan Encarnacion!" "Cardinal fans deserve better" "These bums don't deserve to play in October"
3. Bargaining. "God, I'll give you my firstborn if the Cardinals can just stop being so frustrating and start winning!"
4. Depression. "When does football season start?"
5. Acceptance. "This is a bad team". "Even if they make it to the playoffs, good luck getting past the first round." "So, who's in 07's free agent class?".

I'd like to see Wainwright get the oppurtunity, here' my case with the help of fangraphs.com

Adam and Izzy are about the same as far as K's go.

Izzy has cut down his walks some later in the season, but Wainwright has been much stingier with the free passes. I don't know about you, but nothing is more frustrating then watching the Cowardly Isringlion walk guys like Rich Aurilia on 4 pitches to get to anyone, because all to often it's come back to kill him, much to Cardinal fan's chagrin. 

But worst of all is the homerun rate. This is the clincher. All too often we've seen him try and go back to his Benedict Arnold cutter, which usually ends in him walking off the mound with a despondent look on his face as the opponents are mobbing each other at home plate. On the other hand, Wainwright has allowed less then a HR per 9.

I know that some would argue that Adam's only a rookie, but he's already been in the fire of high leverage situations and has come out on top more often then not.

My only concern, and it is a big concern, is his platoon split. Righties are hitting under .200 against Adam, southpaws over .300. Not only could that render him ineffective as a closer, it hurts his ability as a set-up guy this year and a starter the next (if that's still the Card's plan for him.) If he could remedy that, it would go along way. I have no idea if those sort of splits have dogged him throughout the minors or not. All I know is for now, please no more Izzy.

As for the game, you hate to see 7 RBI's from Albert go to waste like that. I've been a fan of the Weaver trade, but the guy is mental. Just watching his body language and facial expressions is sick. He loses it all to often. That was a back-breaker of a game, and I'm not sure we can come back from that one.

• I've gone from being a Dunc optimist starting to be a Dunc believer. As the season goes on, those HR swings are getting to be more and more beautiful. He's not longer falling to his knees when he takes a good cut, and it doesn't seem to matter if the pitch is a fastball or curve, up in the zone or below his knees, he can go yard at anytime. Whether it's just a hot streak or what, it's getting harder and harder to believe that he's not for real. The name 'Francouer' comes to mind when you think of mid-season rookie hot streaks , but the difference here is that Duncan actually can show some restraint and selectivity at the plate. Hey, he played good defense today as well. Dunc's win probability added is 1.01, 3rd among Cardinal hitters behind Pujols and Rolen.
• Who wouldn't mind having Rule 5 pick Juan Mateo back? That first inning was rough, but as the game went on he looked very sharp. Cubs fans should be pretty excited about his progress from here. With all the pitching woes in the rotation, a guy like Mateo would be nice to have around now. Stupid visa issues!
• Carpenter continues to be nails. He's just such a contrast from the rest of the rotation. For example, yesterday in the 4th inning Suppan just wilted under the pressure he was under, looking for that perfect pitch to get him out of the jam and taking forever to get with Molina on the signs. Carpenter had a man on first and second due to a silly error on Juan E. But rather then getting rattled, he went right after Nevin and induced a DP. I know the rest of the staff may not have Carp's talent, but you wish they had his confidence and mental-toughness.
• Is Yadier Molina the most unlucky player in baseball? He stung the ball hard in 3 of his at bats, but to the fielders for outs except for his double. According to PrOPS, (Projected OPS), Yadier should be batting .288 with a .740 OPS. While that's not terrific, it's a far cry from his .217/.273/.329 numbers he has going into today's game. (For those of you who aren't familiar with PrOPS, it's developed by JC Bradbury from The Hardball Times and the blog Sabernomics. It's  a formula for predicting what a player's OPS should  be in the future based on batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks. ) From watching Yadi, it seems like he hits the ball pretty hard, just to the guys with the gloves. If he could ever .280/.740, coupled with his defense, and the outcry to get rid of Molina would be silenced.
• Hand it to Juan for jumping on a mistake and driving it a long way for a 3 run homer. He ain't a world beater, but he does have his uses.

The game is tied, it's the bottom of the ninth, the bases are loaded, there are two outs, and Strawberry is due to bat.  Even though Darryl has hit nine home runs, Burns sends him to the showers because Strawberry and the pitcher are both left-handed.  (``It's called playing the percentages.'')  He sends Homer, a righty, to the plate instead.  Burns reviews the signals with Homer.  Burns' explanation goes on and on, and Homer's mind wanders.  ``I wish I was home with a big bag of potato chips.  Mmm... potato chips...''

-From the Simpson's Episode Homer at the Bat.

Unlike the Simpsons episode, Juan wasn't plunked in the head unconscious for a game-winning RBI. In the last 7 days, Juan has been hitting .208 in 24 at bats, Dunc on the other hand-.563 with a .913 slugging % in 23 at bats and has been the teams hottest hitter. Duncan had already tied the game with a dramatic homerun earlier, but apparently Tony just had to prove he's got the magic or something.

Now if you do look at Dunc's minor league splits, it's true that he doesn't hit lefties well while Ohman has shut them down. But again, are you going to trust a struggling Juan or go with the hot hand? Duncan did hit a homer previously against Rheal Cormier not long ago during this hot streak, so it's not like he hasn't been there before.

What is it about Dusty Baker that seems to bring the worst out in LaRussa? Is he trying to re-create a dramatic script for another 3 Nights in August? I don't get it. Not to say LaRussa is a bad manager, obviously he's far from that. I can see what he was trying to do by playing the numbers, but I think when most fans saw Encarnacion come to the plate in favor of Dunc, we all had that sinking feeling that things were shifting in the wrong direction.

It wasn't just LaRussa to blame for today's loss. Suppan's wildness didn't help either. Watching him trying to get together with Yadier on the signs was unbearable to witness. It's like he was trying to find the right cord to pull to diffuse the ticking time-bomb. Jeff started the game great, working quick and challenging hitters. You hate to see a pitcher beat himself, and that's exactly what Soup did.

Ronnie Belliard-True distance of 399 feet, left the yard at 103.5 mph

Gary Bennett- 429 feet, speed 110.3 MPH

Chris Duncan- 421 feet, speed 110.6 mph

Albert Pujols- 450 feet, 115.7 mph!!!! That's montrous!!

Scott Rolen-403 feet, 105 mph

Preston Wilson (like this pickup so far)-433 feet, 112.6 mph

Put all the Cardinals homeruns together and in distance they equal around half a mile, 2535 feet to be exact.

Mulder is done. It's hard to believe that 5 seasons ago Mulder was a serious Cy Young contender and through 3 seasons Mulder was in the top 10 in the league in WHIP. It's sad. Mulder seems like a nice, quiet guy and I think that gets confused with some as a lack of fire. I'm not so sure Mulder lacks fire, but he's been lacking something in terms of ability since the All Star break of 03. As much as I'd like to blame Billy Beane for peddling damaged goods, there's something to be said about the front office here. I don't know if the scouts didn't do their job in breaking down the 2nd half swoon, or if the front office just had to have their "big name"  and refused to listen, but now it's time to forget this whole fiasco has ever happened and move on. (How is Danny Haren doing these days? That good, huh?)

I posted earlier this week regarding an interview Bernie Miklasz had on his radio show with Dave Duncan, and Duncan said Mulder's mechanics was messed up when he got here and it's been a constant battle for him. Perhaps it's a testament of Duncan's coaching ability that we actually got a decent 05 from Mulder.

• Who da thunk 2 pain in the butt cast-offs like Weaver and Lohse matching up against each other would turn into a pitcher's duel?
• How many times has Adam Wainwright come up big in high leverage situations? He came up with a huge K with the runner on 3rd and no outs and luck was probably on his side on the liner to Duncan.
• Albert had a nice pair of web-gems. People keep saying he's going to win a Gold Glove someday, I think someday could be this season. Acoording to FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement, Albert's glove has been worth 17 fielding runs above Joe AAAA in 99 games. In case you're not familiar with that metric, let's just say that's pretty darn good.
• Duncan continues to tear up the Reds, setting up the "pee in our pants, it's Albert I guess we should walk him" routine. And that of course set up the walk off single by Rolen, who tied the game in the first place with his solo. Woo-hoo!

I'd like to stay this excited, but the Cubs are coming to town. 

From Joe Strauss, who is on now...(have at it, poachers)...(That would be me here.)

This could be a big deal...

At least, Edmonds has a serious post-concussion syndrome...

not in lineup tonite...not sure when he will play again...

could be diabetes, hypoglycemia...other serious illnesses... checking everything.... team concerned.... ran a battery of tests today, including a vision exam.

Edmonds didn't even know -- a day after -- when he came out of the game last night ... he thought it was the second or third inning....can't see very well... had a hard time seeing the ball last night... driving home last night, couldn't see the traffic signs.

Edmonds talked to Strauss about 15 minutes ago... says he's really mystified and troubled.

The dizziness is why Edmonds was pulled out of the game last night. Many of you may know post-concussion syndrome is what shelved Mike Matheny for the rest of the season, but as a catcher I'd imagine he's taken a lot more blows to the head the Jim Edmonds. Here's the prognosis on Post Concussion Syndrome from Wikipedia:

For most patients, post concussion symptoms go away within a few days to several weeks after the original injury occurs. In others, symptoms may remain for three to six months. In a small percentage of patients, symptoms may persist for years or may be permanent. If symptoms are not resolved by one year, they are likely to be permanent. However, the prognosis for PCS is generally considered excellent, with total resolution of symptoms in the large majority of cases.

If a patient receives another blow to the head after a concussion but before concussion symptoms have gone away, there is a slight risk that he or she will develop the very rare but deadly Second Impact Syndrome (SIS). In SIS, the brain may rapidly swell and be damaged.

So as you can see, this could be a few days, or it could be a long, lingering problem. It's not out of the realm of possible that we don't see Jimmy for a while, maybe even the rest of the season. We'll just have to wait and see. Corey Koskie of the Brewers has suffered the same thing, and hasn't played a game since July 5th. Hopefully it's not anything out of the ordinary bad. This was caused by Edmonds running into the wall trying to rob Joe Crede of the White Sox of a HR 6/21. If you remember, that's when the White Sox put a giant noogie on Marquis. The score was already 9-3 before Crede put the Sox up by 7. Ugh. I appreciate the hustle and all but oy. That just plain stinks. I guess we'll now have to endure a center field manned by So Taguchi and Timo Perez.

I'd be remiss to not say that Carp was nothing short of brilliant last night. Nice to see Belliard bust of his slump as well. I'll be recording Reyes outing tonight, can't wait to see how he does.

What interested me the most was what Duncan had to say about Anthony Reyes and the 2 seam fastball of doom that I thought was ruining Reyes. In a nutshell, Duncan said that big leaguers feast on pitches up, and he thought the 2 seamer would benefit Reyes in getting the ball down in the zone and getting quick outs. Dunc said Reyes hasn't taken to it (*big shock*). However, believe it or not, Duncan actually is fine with that. He just wants Reyes to keep the ball down. He also wants him to learn to mix things up better with his pitch selection. Just looking at Reyes's last couple of outings, and the results he's got, we're seeing that. So there goes my conspiracy theory....

Dunc also noted that he's working with Reyes on learning the cutter. That's something worth watching. Anyway, I was very encouraged with what Dunc had to say about young Reyes.

There's a lot of other stuff regarding Mulder, Weaver, Marquis and a possible shakeup there, so again head over to Bernie's to get the rest of the skinny. Oh, and if I were to guess, when Mulder comes back, based on what I heard DD say, I'd have to think Marquis is in fact the odd man out when Mulder gets back. Seems like they've had it with his inconsistency.

And we now lead the league in plunkings (64).There's a sick side of me that is starting to root for this team to fail. These bums just don't belong in October playing like this and the sooner the offseason can come the better. The front office has got a lot of work to do this winter, and if the ownership thinks it can handcuff Jocketty again and maintain the fanbase it's got another thing coming. I need to see some changes here, or else I'll find something else to do with my time other then yelling at the TV and kicking the cats. (Quick, call the ARF foundation!) I'm not trying to be fairweather, I just think that a team that has solid resources ("small market" notwithstanding) along with a solid core in place like Pujols, Carpenter and Rolen has no reason to be in the fight of it's life to fend off over-achieving weenies like the Cincinnati Scrap Heapers featuring Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel. If the ownership thinks they can sell me baseball strictly based on hokiness and ghosts of the past with no real substance, then maybe I should just forget it. 

LaRussa had a quote at the official site about fans not going over to football with a close division race. I don't even consider myself a big football fan, but I'm actually looking forward to football this fall, as it will be a nice change from watching frustating baseball 6 days a week.

I guess no one's putting a gun to my head. Okay so no, I probably won't give up on the Cards, even though many of the players seem to be giving up on themselves. I guess it's gotta get much worse then this for me to denounce 'Cardinalism'. I've seen crappier baseball and have been no worse for the wear. It's just very disheartening to see this team get it's head kicked in by the worst team in the National League, and that's not to mention we can't seem to figure out the rival Cubs, who we play this week.

The facts are is Hector hit .263/.335/.384 over his 6 year minor league career. Between 02-03 he posted a decent .738 and a .727 OPS but it wasn't good enough for the Tribe to decide to put him on their 40 man so the Cardinals scooped him up. We all remember 04 where Luna hit like he belonged in the minors, but we did look like he had the potential to be a decent utility player. He couldn't beat out Abe Nunez out of spring training in 05 and went down to Memphis where he hit .224. He was only called up out of neccessity and something seemed to click as he hit .285/.344/.409. He did benefit from some very good luck as his BABIP (BA of balls in play) was .342.

The story is the same for Luna in 06, where he hit well .292/.355/.417, but that BA seems to be fluky with a BABIP of .330. That's pretty high considering Luna's a groundball hitter.

I'm not trying to trash Hector Luna. I think he could be a decent regular in the future if things break right for him, but he wasn't going to get the chance to be one here in St. Louis. And I think we should be using the same healthy measure of skeptism we take with Chris Duncan, and that is his minor league numbers have not forecasted greatness, and while he hit well in limited duty over the last 2 seasons, I think much of that has to do with LaRussa spotting Luna well against lefties. Since coming over to Cleveland, he's hit for a .374 OPS in 25 plate appearances, so I'm sure some fans are moaning over losing Belliard for a piece of poop just as we are fussing over giving up Luna for Fat Deuce.

Now to Belliard. The trade does not make sense if Belliard is indeed a rental, but if he's not if it's true that the Cardinals are interested in resigning him then it doesn't seem so bad. Belliard has posted VORP's of 16.6, 24 and 29.9 (06-04). That's good for 6th, 6th, and 3rd among all AL 2nd baseman. He projects okay over the next 2 seasons, about as good as the other available second baseman available this winter like Ray Durham, Todd Walker, Adam Kennedy and Mark Loretta.

I guess I'm just tired of hearing about how Belliard is worthless and how's ruining this team. Let's give him more then 10 games before we make this judgment. And I admit, I wonder he'd would've been received better by some fans if he didn't have braids and wear his uni baggy.

In 1000 Minor League at bats, Duncan's contact rate has been 74% (AB-K/AB), which is mediocre. His contact rate in the majors before his last call up was even worse, 62%. Since he's been back up this July, his contact rate is 83%, which is about league average. Why the jump?  According an article in July by Joe Strauss, McRae is trying to get Duncan to swing "out, not up". The emphasis, which I think is a very good one, is to get Duncan to staying in the zone longer and hitting line drives instead of running into the occasional homerun. Running into the occasional homerun seems to fit Duncans minor track record of 100's of strikeouts, and 16 homer seasons here, and a 20 homer season there coupled with mediocre batting averages.

If the change is to stay, he still isn't going to continue to hit .307 but .270 could be a real possibility. Couple that with his average to above average plate discipline and good power and I'm thinking a .270/.340/.480 season could be a achievable as soon as 2007. I'm not sold it will happen, mind you, just saying it could happen. Interestingly, PECOTA's top comparables are George Scott, Derrek Lee and Nick Johnson. The last 2 are pretty lofty company, the Sawx's "Boomer" seems the most similiar out of the 3. If you ask me for a comp, I'm thinking Chris Shelton of the Detroit Tigers, who recently was ousted to AAA in favor of the veteran Sean Casey. Shelton's streaky, can be victimized by K's but has decent power and walk rates. Dunc's 25, Shelton's 26. Shelton doesn't need to be platooned, Dunc probably does.

All in all, I do think he can be more then a .250 hitter that many have projected him to be given the McRae factor. But it's something he needs to stick to, and not go back into swing for the fences mode.