Dave Duncan on 1380

I got to listen to Dave Duncan being interviewed on the radio on Bernie Miklasz’s show today. I found Duncan very forthcoming and informative with the mess going on with the rotation. Bernie’s got the lowdown at the Pressbox, be sure to check it out in full.

What interested me the most was what Duncan had to say about Anthony Reyes and the 2 seam fastball of doom that I thought was ruining Reyes. In a nutshell, Duncan said that big leaguers feast on pitches up, and he thought the 2 seamer would benefit Reyes in getting the ball down in the zone and getting quick outs. Dunc said Reyes hasn’t taken to it (*big shock*). However, believe it or not, Duncan actually is fine with that. He just wants Reyes to keep the ball down. He also wants him to learn to mix things up better with his pitch selection. Just looking at Reyes’s last couple of outings, and the results he’s got, we’re seeing that. So there goes my conspiracy theory….

Dunc also noted that he’s working with Reyes on learning the cutter. That’s something worth watching. Anyway, I was very encouraged with what Dunc had to say about young Reyes.

There’s a lot of other stuff regarding Mulder, Weaver, Marquis and a possible shakeup there, so again head over to Bernie’s to get the rest of the skinny. Oh, and if I were to guess, when Mulder comes back, based on what I heard DD say, I’d have to think Marquis is in fact the odd man out when Mulder gets back. Seems like they’ve had it with his inconsistency.

Pardon me while I stand up and boo

Baghead Not only did Marquis probably save his job by throwing a semi decent game while simultaneously re-asserting himself as the NL gopherball leader, we just got swept by the lowly Buccos. The Cardinals scored 3 runs the whole series against a team that has been allowing 5.1 runs per. It’s not like we haven’t had baserunners, so I gotta believe the offense will turn around but that doesn’t matter right now, what matters is the L’s getting thrown up in the standings.

And we now lead the league in plunkings (64).There’s a sick side of me that is starting to root for this team to fail. These bums just don’t belong in October playing like this and the sooner the offseason can come the better. The front office has got a lot of work to do this winter, and if the ownership thinks it can handcuff Jocketty again and maintain the fanbase it’s got another thing coming. I need to see some changes here, or else I’ll find something else to do with my time other then yelling at the TV and kicking the cats. (Quick, call the ARF foundation!) I’m not trying to be fairweather, I just think that a team that has solid resources ("small market" notwithstanding) along with a solid core in place like Pujols, Carpenter and Rolen has no reason to be in the fight of it’s life to fend off over-achieving weenies like the Cincinnati Scrap Heapers featuring Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel. If the ownership thinks they can sell me baseball strictly based on hokiness and ghosts of the past with no real substance, then maybe I should just forget it. 

LaRussa had a quote at the official site about fans not going over to football with a Iowadm_1 close division race. I don’t even consider myself a big football fan, but I’m actually looking forward to football this fall, as it will be a nice change from watching frustating baseball 6 days a week.

I guess no one’s putting a gun to my head. Okay so no, I probably won’t give up on the Cards, even though many of the players seem to be giving up on themselves. I guess it’s gotta get much worse then this for me to denounce ‘Cardinalism’. I’ve seen crappier baseball and have been no worse for the wear. It’s just very disheartening to see this team get it’s head kicked in by the worst team in the National League, and that’s not to mention we can’t seem to figure out the rival Cubs, who we play this week.

In defense of Ronnie Belliard

I admit it. I was on the Free Hector Luna bandwagon. But since fans and writers alike are beginning to bomb on Ronnie Belliard and dismissing him as a non-hustling, non-hitting fat piece of poop I feel compelled to state a fact: That fact is that Ronnie Belliard does not ****, and in the end, this trade actually could make some sense. I know it’s been dismissed as not one of Jocketty’s finer deals, and I see the logic but I really think people are overvaluing Hector Luna.

The facts are is Hector hit .263/.335/.384 over his 6 year minor league career. Between 02-03 he posted a decent .738 and a .727 OPS but it wasn’t good enough for the Tribe to decide to put him on their 40 man so the Cardinals scooped him up. We all remember 04 where Luna hit like he belonged in the minors, but we did look like he had the potential to be a decent utility player. He couldn’t beat out Abe Nunez out of spring training in 05 and went down to Memphis where he hit .224. He was only called up out of neccessity and something seemed to click as he hit .285/.344/.409. He did benefit from some very good luck as his BABIP (BA of balls in play) was .342.

The story is the same for Luna in 06, where he hit well .292/.355/.417, but that BA seems to be fluky with a BABIP of .330. That’s pretty high considering Luna’s a groundball hitter.

I’m not trying to trash Hector Luna. I think he could be a decent regular in the future if things break right for him, but he wasn’t going to get the chance to be one here in St. Louis. And I think we should be using the same healthy measure of skeptism we take with Chris Duncan, and that is his minor league numbers have not forecasted greatness, and while he hit well in limited duty over the last 2 seasons, I think much of that has to do with LaRussa spotting Luna well against lefties. Since coming over to Cleveland, he’s hit for a .374 OPS in 25 plate appearances, so I’m sure some fans are moaning over losing Belliard for a piece of poop just as we are fussing over giving up Luna for Fat Deuce.

Now to Belliard. The trade does not make sense if Belliard is indeed a rental, but if he’s not if it’s true that the Cardinals are interested in resigning him then it doesn’t seem so bad. Belliard has posted VORP’s of 16.6, 24 and 29.9 (06-04). That’s good for 6th, 6th, and 3rd among all AL 2nd baseman. He projects okay over the next 2 seasons, about as good as the other available second baseman available this winter like Ray Durham, Todd Walker, Adam Kennedy and Mark Loretta.

I guess I’m just tired of hearing about how Belliard is worthless and how’s ruining this team. Let’s give him more then 10 games before we make this judgment. And I admit, I wonder he’d would’ve been received better by some fans if he didn’t have braids and wear his uni baggy.

Why I’m optimistic about Chris Duncan

After another big game for Chris Duncan Thursday, message boards went abuzz as Cardinal fans were jumping on the Dunc bandwagon and are ready to anoint him as the next Cardinal star, while others are less hopeful. I don’t think he’s a star, but here’s a little reason for a positive outlook for the coach’s son.

In 1000 Minor League at bats, Duncan’s contact rate has been 74% (AB-K/AB), which is mediocre. His contact rate in the majors before his last call up was even worse, 62%. Since he’s been back up this July, his contact rate is 83%, which is about league average. Why the jump?  According an article in July by Joe Strauss, McRae is trying to get Duncan to swing "out, not up". The emphasis, which I think is a very good one, is to get Duncan to staying in the zone longer and hitting line drives instead of running into the occasional homerun. Running into the occasional homerun seems to fit Duncans minor track record of 100’s of strikeouts, and 16 homer seasons here, and a 20 homer season there coupled with mediocre batting averages.

If the change is to stay, he still isn’t going to continue to hit .307 but .270 could be a real possibility. Couple that with his average to above average plate discipline and good power and I’m thinking a .270/.340/.480 season could be a achievable as soon as 2007. I’m not sold it will happen, mind you, just saying it could happen. Interestingly, PECOTA’s top comparables are George Scott, Derrek Lee and Nick Johnson. The last 2 are pretty lofty company, the Sawx’s "Boomer" seems the most similiar out of the 3. If you ask me for a comp, I’m thinking Chris Shelton of the Detroit Tigers, who recently was ousted to AAA in favor of the veteran Sean Casey. Shelton’s streaky, can be victimized by K’s but has decent power and walk rates. Dunc’s 25, Shelton’s 26. Shelton doesn’t need to be platooned, Dunc probably does.

All in all, I do think he can be more then a .250 hitter that many have projected him to be given the McRae factor. But it’s something he needs to stick to, and not go back into swing for the fences mode.

Dropping 2 in 1

Well the Cardinal’s dropped a double header simultaneously, as the hitters not named Albert could not figure out Zach Duke, and Mark Mulder got it handed to him in the 3rd by the AAA I-Cubs. Here’s the game log of that inning.

  • Ryan O’Malley walks. (He’s their pitcher! And he walked on 4 straight!)
  • Felix Pie singles on a line drive to center fielder Skip Schumaker. Ryan O’Malley to 2nd.
  • Luis Montanez flies out to right fielder John Rodriguez.
  • Michael Restovich lines out to first baseman Jorge Toca.
  • With Micah Hoffpauir batting, passed ball by Brian Esposito, Ryan O’Malley to 3rd. Felix Pie to 2nd.
  • Micah Hoffpauir singles on a line drive to right fielder John Rodriguez. Ryan O’Malley scores. Felix Pie scores. Micah Hoffpauir to 2nd on the throw.
  • Casey McGehee homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Micah Hoffpauir scores.
  • Geovany Soto doubles (18) on a fly ball to left fielder Timo Perez.
  • Buck Coats grounds out, second baseman Junior Spivey to first baseman Jorge Toca.

Mulder’s line: 4 runs, 4 walks, 4 runs, 2 K’s and 1 HR. He threw 71 pitches, 39 for strikes and got 3 ground outs to 7 fly outs. I guess there goes the idea that Mulder will bring back consistency to the starting rotation. Suppan, who has been Mr. Consistent pretty much since the All Star break didn’t look sharp at tonight, either.

The highs and lows with the pen continue. Why Tony even continues to trot out Tyler Johnson is beyond me. Seems like he’s always giving up the big hit and he walks way too many batters. Is Flores’ elbow still hurting? I know he’s been hit this season, but what little confidence I have in our lefties is in Flores. I think he’s better then the results he’s got this season. On the plus side of what I saw was the bullpen was Jorge Sosa. The gun on the WB was clocking him at 93 but Molina’s mitt was popping loudly. Out of the 11 pitches he threw, 10 were for strikes. I’d like to see him do that when it counts, not just in mop-up duties.

I know the fans are getting on Ronnie Belliard..I’m hearing the names. Belly-up, Belly Lard, Belly Flop…ha ha..I am beginning to not mind the trade as times goes by. Luna is 2 for 19 in Cleveland, Belliard 4 for 38. So Luna isn’t getting the playing time he thought he would, he’s still stuck in a platoon, this time with Joe Inglett. I’m pretty sure that Belliard isn’t gonna hit a buck 0 something the rest of the season. But if you’re going call him a name, I like Mr. Gangster Rapper Posse Member guy. (Love those commercials)

The Reds lost in extras to the Phils, saving our 3 1/2 game lead.

Man up, Izzy.

I like Jason Isringhausen, but here is my problem with him. When you agree to become a closer, you forfeit your right to be a chicken-poop. I don’t care if Rich Aurilia supposively owns the Cardinals, he’s still a .276/.330/.440 career hitter. That is no one to be afraid of enough to throw a four pitch walk to and frankly there is no one in that Red’s lineup where doing that makes any sense. There were a lot of things wrong with that game, but in the end he’s the guy the trust in the 9th to hold a lead and he didn’t. Again. and again. and again. and again. and again. and again. and again.

Now I’ll hand it to him that he’s done quite  well since he decided to go after hitters with his fastball and quit working around guys. Why he deviated from that tonight, I have no idea but I would think he wouldn’t do it again. Right?!?…

Jimmy’s gettin’ upset!

"Jimmy’s in limbo". "Jimmy’s frustrated by being in the dark".

Jimmy’s starting to crow to the media, saying he’s getting the Matt Morris vibes as the season goes on. No player wants his career to be up in the air, but I wish he’d try and take the Pujols road and earn his job every year, rather then rest on his laurels.

He’s obviously not the Edmonds we have loved, but even in his decline he has the 4th best PrOPS of NL centerfielders, and he’s made some of his usual big plays patrolling center. If Edmonds would just look around, he’d see the competition on the upcoming winter CF market isn’t completely stacked with talent. Torii Hunter is the biggest name out there if the Twins don’t pick up his option (and I’m not sure they wil), and he’s the only name I might take a peak at. I worry about his ankle, but he plays much better defense then Jim these days (if you put any stock in fielding metrics), and he doesn’t need to be platooned. I’m not saying I agree with Edmonds being platooned, but I’m just trying to look at this from a LaRussian standpoint (wow! my head hurts now). He would be a "more complete player" from that view, the same reason we traded Luna for Belliard.

Outside of Hunter, (and I’m not saying I particularly endorse Hunter, just musing here)  the list is thin. Gary Matthews Jr, Kenny Lofton, Dave Roberts. Another option could be moving Encarnacion to center, then perhaps signing Jose Guillen to man right and a lesser guy like Dellucci or Catalanatto to play left. (Though I don’t see Guillen meshing well with the Skip). The other free agent corner outfielders consist of Soriano, Carlos Lee, Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou and several lesser lights.

I’d love to see Edmonds finish out his career in Cardinal red, but the only way that should happen is if he’ makes himself unexpendable, and right now that’s debatable.

Real Men of Genius

Reverend Redbird Presents: Real Men of Genius.

Today we salute you, Mr. I Shouldn’t Be Allowed on the Mound Guy.  Bickler

Arms flailing, feet kicking dirt, neck whiplashing, sweat profusely pouring over your ten cent head. They said that pitching ugly could never become an art form. You had the audacity to prove them wrong. With the assortment of garbage you aren’t able to command, you rear back and paint a masterpiece…of disaster. No matter what the coaches say, the catcher calls, or what everyone else in their right mind in the stadium thinks you should do…you have plan, and you’re sticking to it. They call you a chucker. You say you’re just being too fine. While most pitchers try to hit their spots and use deception, you say "it’s Christmas morning, boys, here it is" and watch that ball travel. While your performance would be acceptable in a Beer League, it’s not in the National League, or the American League, or the Sally League, or on the San Diego Surf Dawgs. So today we salute you, Oh insufferable chuck-and-ducker, because without you, the fans in the cheap seats would have to pay for their own souvenirs.

Mr. I Shouldn’t Be Allowed on the Mound Guy!

Palm Beach’s 1-2 bullpen punch

I don’t think I’ve heard anything about Matt Scherer, but combing over the Palm Beach Cardinal stats I’m suprised no one has mentioned his name before. Scherer was drafted in the 16th round out of the 2004 first year player draft. He started 12 games that season for Johnson City, going 2-5 with a 4.03. The next season he started 24 games for the Swing of the Quad Cities, posting a solid 3.96 ERA over 134 innings. That’s all solid and good, but Scherer didn’t really look like a top tier prospect, just a solid arm who pitched fairly well in the low A ranks that you just hope will continue to develop and perhaps some day really blossom.

But since Scherer has moved to the bullpen for the Palm Beach squad this season, he has blossomed. He’s been the set up man for Springfield closer Matt Sillman (who I’ll get to in a minute), and he’s been dominating the league, posting 89 strikeouts in 66.1 innings pitched. He’s also demonstrated good control, walking only 15 batters. That’s about double of his K/9 rate as a starter (12.1 verses 6.45) and he’s shaved down his walk rate. The scouting report on Scherer says he has a heavy fastball, a slider and throws an occasional split-finger fastball. He’s an imposing figure on the mound at 6-5, 230 pounds.

The closer for the Palm Beach Cardinals is Mike Sillman, a 25 year old side-arming righty drafted also in the 04 draft, 21st round. He’s had dominating K ratios, 11/9IP at three different levels, but has had trouble with command with over 5 BB/9 through that span. He’s toned that down this season, with a 71:17 K/BB ratio in 49.2 innings, 1.09 ERA, opponents are only hitting .185 against and he has 29 saves to boot. Seems pretty old to be in A ball, but he’s too raw for AAA and Mark Worrell is entrenched as the closer at AA where Cody Doyne also is pretty good as the set up guy. Without seeing him pitch, I’m guessing Sillman has the chance to be Byung-Yung Kim before he was destroyed, and hopefully not after. 

Both pitchers are worth keeping an eye on as they climb up the ranks.

Mulder’s rehab start

I just got back from watching Mark Mulder’s rehab start for the Quad Cities, and overall I liked what I saw. The wildly optimistic side of me hoped that somehow with the rest Mulder would magically revert to the Oakland A version 2003, but that isn’t gonna happen. But the soft-tossing grounder machine 2005 version of Mulder was there, getting 7 ground outs to 6 fly outs with a fastball topping out at 87 mph. (However, I did think the gun at the stadium was slow. If I were to guess, he may have hit 89 tops.) His control was good, though spotty at times resulting in the 2 walks and the 2 XBH. Both the double and the homerun yielded were sinkers that didn’t sink and were around 84 mph later in the game. One thing that I noticed was every time Mulder tried to throw a curve there was a little hesitation in his delivery and the balls ended up in the dirt and at times getting away from the catcher. He really needs that curve working to get strikeouts with any sort of regularity.

If you think the 6 fly balls are worrisome, I wouldn’t get overly worked up about it. Most of them were routine pop ups or were made on the infield, I can only remember a few hit right on the nose. I’d be shocked if Mulder continues his extreme gopheritis trend when he returns, but I wouldn’t expect to see him return to his nice, low rates of 05 either.

Based on what I saw, I would expect Mulder to come back and be an asset, going back to getting lots of groundballs and inducing DP’s, and yet still doing his fair share of trying to nibble the corners and being fairly hittable.

EDIT: Rob at the Birdwatch was there also, and frankly his analysis puts mine to shame. I highly recommend it. I had the same idea to log every pitch while I was there, with pen and paper in hand but I’ll excuse myself by saying it was really freakin’ hot and there was a lot of moving around in my section.